The airline business is the biggest team sport in the world. When you're all consumed with fighting among yourselves, your opponents can run over you every day. Gordon Bethune
While labour market reports scream with dramatic youth unemployment data, hundreds of employers cry out for employees with the right skills sets. As recruiters, we suffer this shortage every day. Alain Dehaze
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Pilot Outlook: 2017 - 2036
Airlines across the globe are expanding their fleets and flight schedules to satisfy demand generated by global economic expansion. The aviation industry continues to address these challenges by creating balanced, sustainable solutions to fill future pilot pipelines.
Regional markets that have relied heavily on recruiting pilots from outside their home locations are increasingly seeking to recruit, train, and develop locally sourced pilots. New market opportunities are creating an increased demand for qualified, skilled, and experienced pilots.
Over the next 20 years, the Asia Pacific region will lead the worldwide growth in demand for pilots, with a requirement for 253,000 new pilots. North America will require 117,000, Europe 106,000, the Middle East 63,000, Latin America 52,000, Africa 24,000 and CIS / Russia 22,000.
Cabin Crew Outlook: 2017 – 2036
As airlines continue to expand flight routes, grow their fleet, and transition to airplanes with higher seat capacity, an increasing number of cabin crew will be needed to ensure the safety and comfort of passengers. With a focus on operational improvements, many regional markets have also updated regulations to require a greater number of cabin crew per aircraft.
Over the next 20 years, the largest projected growth in cabin crew demand is in the Asia Pacific region, with a requirement for 308,000 new cabin crew. Europe will require 173,000, North America 154,000, Middle East 96,000, Latin America 52,000, Africa 28,00, and CIS / Russia 28,000.
Analyst / Technician Outlook: 2017 - 2036
Global fleet growth will continue to drive a strong demand for technicians to repair and maintain the airplanes. Newer generation airplanes will help moderate the demand somewhat by allowing longer intervals between maintenance checks, fewer non-routine tasks, and improved airplane reliability.
As airlines continue to take delivery of new airplanes, advances in airplane technology will drive an increased need for technicians skilled in avionics, composites, and digital troubleshooting.
The need for maintenance personnel is largest in the Asia Pacific region, which will require 256,000 new technicians. Airlines in North America will require 118,000, Europe 111,000, the Middle East 66,000, Latin America 49,000, CIS / Russia 25,000, and Africa 23,000.
The global airline industry continues to grow rapidly due to economic, technological, and demographic changes. As a result, over the course of the next 20 years, it has been estimated that the global airline industry will need to find an additional 637,000 new commercial airline pilots to sustain itself.
Overcoming the Airline Profesional Shortage, examines how airlines can begin to develop strategies to attract and retain the right crew. It explores:
- The imbalance between supply and demand for pilots around the world.
- The changing nature of a pilot’s, Crew and Analyst into challenges and concerns.
- How employee benefits can be a key differentiator for airlines seeking to attract and retain the right Professional.
Ready for Takeoff ?
The aviation industry doubled in size in the decade between 2004 and 2014, up from a value of more than GBP258 billion per annum to approximately GBP522 billion per annum2. On top of this, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that passenger traffic growth is expected to increase to more than seven billion people by 2034, with a 3.8% average annual growth in demand (2014 baseline year)3. That is more than double the 3.3 billion who flew in 20144. This change is being driven primarily by steady economic growth, higher disposable incomes in emerging markets, and increased air travel in developing economies. Other predictions made by IATA are as follows:
• Asian, South American, and African destinations will see the fastest future growth, reflecting economic and demographic expansion in those markets.
• Seven of the 10 fastest-growing markets in percentage terms will be in Africa. Each of these markets is expected to increase by 7%-8% per annum on average over the next 20 years, doubling in size each decade.
• China is expected to overtake the United States (US) as the world’s largest passenger market, and will account for some 1.2 billion passengers by 2034.
• In North America, passenger volumes will grow by 3.3% annually. In 2034, the region will carry a total of 1.4 billion an additional 649 million passengers a year.
• The Middle East will grow strongly at 4.9% per annum and will see an extra 237 million passengers a year on routes to, from, through, and within the region by 2034.
• The United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia will enjoy strong annual growth of 5.6%, 4.8%, and 4.6% respectively. The total market size will be 383 million passengers by 2034.
By 2030, it is projected that two thirds of the global middle class will live in the Asia-Pacific region, up from just under one third in 2009.
The life of Aircrew – Challenges and Concerns
Cited as one of the top-five most stressful jobs, the role of an airline pilot can be a demanding one due to the physical and mental pressures put on them16. Safety and training requirements mean that regular testing for health and competency is commonplace, with the threat of loss of license for pilots if they do not meet the standards.
- Longer working hours in more crowded skies
- Terrorism and political instability
- Environmental and biological instability
- Laser strikes
- Drones
COMPETING FOR TALENT – How the right employee benefits can help
Due to the increasing demand for Aircrews and a growing lack of suitable candidates, airlines need to develop strategies to ensure they attract, and retain, the right crew.s
- Conducting regular pay reviews
- Improving working conditions
- Offering enhanced employee benefits
Solution Architect
Manpower Planning
The purpose of this chapter is to provide an insight Into the manpower planning in general. The focus will be on the elements most useful for the specific problem of manpower planning for airlines.
The basic components of a manpower system are people, jobs, time and money(Grinold[7]). When deciding on a manpower policy it is important to be aware of how these components interact. Ideally the purpose of manpower planning is ”to provide the right (required) number of the right (qualified) personnel at the right (specified) time at the minimum cost” (Wang [19]), but often the constrains of the system do not allow the needs to be matched perfectly (Grinold [7]).
There are many definitions and explanations of manpower planning but a common definition is that manpower planning is a process consisting of three elements:
1. Analyzing, reviewing and seeking to predict the number of personnel needed to achieve the objectives of the organization.
2. Predicting the future supply of personnel in the organization by examining current personnel stocks, future recruitment, wastage etc.
3. Considering policies to reconcile any difference between the result of 1 and 2.
A simple hierarchy organization, boxes represent stocks and arrows represent flows.
Strategies for Closing the Gap
There are almost as many strategies for closing the gap between supply and demand as there are companies, although the factors that are possible to affect are similar. Each of these factors have been investigated thoroughly and many are separate fields of studies. It would therefore be possible to write an essay on each of them, but only a short overview will be given here.
Work Flow An obvious way to equalize the gap between supply and demand is of course to fire, hire or move personnel. It is important when using these means to consider what effects there will be on the gap in the future, for example hiring when the need is only temporary might be more expensive than being short on supply for a short while. The process of recruiting can be extensive and an overview of the process and what to consider when recruiting personnel is provided by Bratton and Gold [3, Ch.7]. Another part of managing the work flow is career and succession planning whose aim are to designing career paths and to make sure that positions have suitable occupants. Since most position requires a “learning period” a long-term view is needed.
Training Training can be considered as the activities intended to enhance the skill, knowledge and capabilities of the personnel. The processes and procedures that try to provide the learning activities are often referred to as human resource development (HRD) and have been a major field of study during recent years. In Chapter 9 in [3] by Bratton and Gold the field of HRD is presented.
Reward Management Bratton and Gold [3] define a reward as “all the monetary, non-monetary and psychological payments that an organization provides for its employees in exchange for the work they perform”. The way employees and managers are rewarded has under gone a significant change during the past decade, from being based on hours worked and seniority to individual effort and performance. There are many objectives that a reward system must meet: support the organization’s strategy, recruit qualified employees, retain capable employees, ensure internal and external equity, be sustainable within the financial means of the organization, motivate employees to perform to the maximum of their extent, and so on (Bratton and Gold [3]). Reward management is extensively covered in literature and entire books are available on the subject, Bratton and Gold cover some important features in Chapter 10 of [3].
Demand Factors Some factors affecting demand were presented : corporate strategy, productivity changes, technological changes, organizational changes, market forces and trends etc. When trying to find strategies to close the gap these factors are still important but from another perspective. The focus was how these factors affected demand, but here the focus is how these factors can be affected so that they in turn affect demand in the desired direction.
Supply Factors As with demand some factors affecting supply have been presented, namely: recruitment policies, wastage, promotion policies and age distribution. These can similarly to demand factors be affected to in turn affect supply.
Flight Management and Operations Optimization
Manage the complexities of preparing and moving aircraft, crew, cargo, passengers and baggage seamlessly through controlled airspace to a destination airport. Improvement and optimization end-to-end flight operation needs such as:
- Movement Management
- Flight Planning
- Aircraft Situation Display / Flight Tracking
- Load Planning
- Aircraft Datalink Communications
- Irregular Operations
Crew Management Optimization
Frequent changes in airlines' market situations make it challenging to maintain efficient operations. This can lead to an underutilized fleet and crew, or even worse, a shortage of resources.
Airline operations have three major cost drivers: airplanes, fuel, and crew. Advanced mathematical models to optimize crew utilization were introduced in the early 1990s and have evolved continually since then. Key to the long-term success of such models is their adaptability to changes in planning conditions and their ability to absorb advancements in technology. Because of the large numbers of crew employed by major airlines, even small changes in productivity can have a significant impact on an airline’s profits: a single percent improvement can translate into several million dollars.
Airlines want their crews to work as efficiently as possible within regulatory and contractual requirements. But an efficient plan also needs to be flexible enough to work under changes in real-world conditions. For example, it needs to easily accommodate the unexpected, such as sick crews or delayed flights.
What’s more, airline crews quite naturally want to influence their work content. Therefore, crew preferences are important inputs in the crew planning process. The crew planner also needs to monitor such items as crew fatigue, hotel costs, and standby requirements and deliver a crew plan that meets the airline’s objectives month after month.
Additional complications include implementation of a new crew agreement or an entire new fleet of airplanes. The result is that crew planners need to consider a wide array of information
Manage your crew, control operating costs and improve the crew-working experience and in turn increase your bottom line.
- Maximizing crew utilization, while ensuring crew legality
- Reducing the number of schedule discrepancies
- Reducing in-hotel and transportation costs with an integrated crew tracking system that provides more accurate tracking of crew roster changes.
- Improving productivity of schedulers performing crew scheduling, pay, hotel and transportation management functions using graphical screens and work flow versus manual or text-based command systems
Conclusion - Positioning your firm in a candidate-led market
The aviation industry is coming under increasing pressure to match the growing demand for Pilots, Crew and Analyst/Technician with enough supply. As this race for the best talent intensifies, airlines will be forced to fundamentally rethink their people strategies.
Given that they operate within an often harsh and volatile economic environment, airlines will need to explore a variety of creative approaches to attracting and retaining crew, beyond simply raising salaries – certainly one approach is to put in place an aviation employee benefits program that distinguishes an airline from its competitors.
Source:
- https://www.boeing.com/commercial/aeromagazine/articles/qtr_03_09/article_04_1.html
- https://www.marsh.com/uk/insights/research/overcoming-the-pilot-shortage.htm
- Manpower Planning in Airlines - Modeling and Optimization Optimization, Link¨opings Universitet-Asa Holm (2008)
- Andersson, E., Forsman, A., Karisch, S.E., Kohl, N. and Sorensten, A.(2005). Problem Solving in Airline Operations. OR/MS Today, Vol. 32.
- Barnhart, C., Belobaba, P. and Odoni, A.R (2003). Applications of Operations Research in the Air Transport Industry.Transportation Science, Vol. 37, pp. 368–391.
- Barton, J. and Gold, J. (2007). Human Resource Management - Theory and Practice 4th ed. Palgrave Macmillan, New York.
- Bartholomew, D.J., Forbes, A.F. and McClean, S.I. (1991). Statistical Techniques for Manpower Planning, 2nd ed. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester.
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